MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling
News & Events
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling's malaria research group have developed software to aid national malaria control programmes. More
The MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling hosted a 'Bacterial Games' stand at the Big Bang Fair. More
Katrina Lythgoe & Christophe Fraser publish on new insights into the evolutionary rate of HIV at the within-host and epidemiological levels. More
Our mission is to be an international resource and centre of excellence for research on the epidemiological analysis and modelling of novel infectious disease outbreaks. (more information)
Recent Publications
May 02, 2013
Alizon S., C. Fraser. "Within-host and between-host evolutionary rates across the HIV-1 genome" Retrovirology. 10(1):49 (2013) (provisional pdf)
April 22, 2013
Nouvellet P., Donnelly C.A., De Nardi M., Rhodes C.J., De Benedictis P., Citterio C., Obber F., Lorenzetto M., Pozza M.D., Cauchemez S., G. Cattoli. "Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of northern Italy (2006-2010)" PLoS ONE 8(4):e61588 (2013) (open access pdf)
April 22, 2013
Rao V.B, Schellenberg D., A.C. Ghani. "Overcoming health systems barriers to successful malaria treatment".Trends Parasitol. 29 (4) 164–180 (2013) (pdf)
April 16, 2013
White M.T., Bejon P., Olotu A., Griffin J.T., Riley E.M., Kester K.E., Ockenhouse C.F., A.C. Ghani. " The Relationship between RTS,S Vaccine-Induced Antibodies, CD4(+) T Cell Responses and Protection against Plasmodium falciparum Infection." PLoS ONE 8(4):e61395 (2013) (open access pdf)
April 05, 2013
Balabanova .D, Mills .A, Conteh .L, Akkazieva .B, Banteyerga .H, Dash .U, Gilson .L, Harmer .A, Ibraimova .A, et al. "Good Health at Low Cost 25 years on: lessons for the future of health systems strengthening." The Lancet [Epub ahead of print] (pdf)
April 01, 2013
Koukounari A., Moustaki I., Grassly N.C., Blake I.M., Basáñez M.G., Gambhir M., Mabey D.C., Bailey R.L., Burton M.J.,Solomon A.W., C.A. Donnelly, "Using a Nonparametric Multilevel Latent Markov Model to Evaluate Diagnostics for Trachoma" Am J Epidemiol [Epub ahead of print] (pdf)
April 01, 2013
Gatton M.L, Chitnis N., Churcher T., Donnelly M.J, Ghani A.C., Godfray H.C., Gould F., Hastings I., Marshall J., H. Ranson, "The importance of mosquito behavioural adaptations to malaria control in Africa", Evolution 67 (4) 1218-1230 (2013) (pdf)
March 23, 2013
Cauchemez S., S. Epperson, M. Biggerstaff, D. Swerdlow,L Finelli, N.M. Ferguson "Using Routine Surveillance Data to Estimate the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Zoonoses: Application to the Emergence of US Swine Origin Influenza A H3N2v Virus." PLoS Med 10(3):e1001399 (2013) (open-access pdf)
March 19, 2013
Walker P.G. , J.T. Griffin, M. Cairns, S.J. Rogerson, A.M. van Eijk ,F. Ter Kuile, A.C. Ghani. "A model of parity-dependent immunity to placental malaria." Nat Commun 4:1609 19 (2013) (open-access pdf)
March 04, 2013
Estill J., M. Egger, N. Blaser, L.S. Vizcaya, D. Garone, R. Wood, J.Campbell, T.B. Hallett, O. Keiser. "Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of ART in resource-limited settings: Mathematical modelling study." AIDS (2013) (abstract) (pdf)
March 01, 2013
Zhang X.S.,D. De Angelis, P.J. White, A Charlett, R.G. Pebody,J. McCauley. "Co-circulation of influenza A virus strains and emergence of pandemic via reassortment: The role of cross-immunity." Epidemics 5(1):20-33 (2013) (abstract) (pdf)
February 28, 2013
Estill J., Egger M., Johnson L.F., Gsponer T., Wandeler G., Davies M-A., Boulle A., Wood R, Garone D., Stringer J.S.A., Hallett T.B., O Keiser, "Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy and Mortality in HIV Programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: Mathematical Modelling Study" PLoS ONE, 8 (2) (2103) (open-access pdf)
February 28, 2013
Bejon, P., M.T. White, A.Olutu, K. Bojang, J.P.A. Lusingu, N. Salim, N. N. Otsyula, S.T. Agnandji, K. P. Asante, S. Owusu-Agyei, S. Abdulla, and A. Ghani.,"Efficacy of RTS,S malaria vaccines: individual-participant pooled analysis of phase 2 data" The Lancet Infectious Diseases, (in-press) (pdf)
February 07, 2013
Pepin K.M, J. Wang, C.T. Webb, J.A. Hoeting, M. Poss, P.J. Hudson, W. Hong, H. Zhu, Y. Guan, S. Riley., "Anticipating the Prevalence of Avian Influenza Subtypes H9 and H5 in Live-Bird Markets" PLoS ONE 8(2):8 pages (open-access pdf)
February 07, 2013
Pepin K.M., S. Riley, B.T. Grenfell, "Effects of influenza antivirals on individual and population immunity over many epidemic waves." Epidemiology and Infection 141(2):366-376 (2013) (pdf)
February 05, 2013
de Muinck, E. J., K. Lagesen, J. E. Afset, X. Didelot, K. S. Ronningen, K. Rudi, N. C. Stenseth, and P. Trosvik. "Comparisons of Infant Escherichia Coli Isolates Link Genomic Profiles with Adaptation to the Ecological Niche." BMC Genomics 14, no. 1 (2013): 81. (abstract) (open access pdf)
January 28, 2013
Cremin I., R. Alsallaq, M. Dybul, P. Piot, G. Garnett, T.B. Hallett. "The new role of antiretrovirals in combination HIV prevention: a mathematical modelling analysis." AIDS 27(3):447-458 (2013) (pdf)
January 01, 2013
Magiorkinis G., Sypsa V., Magiorkinis E., Paraskevis D., Katsoulidou A., Belshaw R., Fraser C., Pybus O.G., A. Hatzakis "Integrating phylodynamics and epidemiology to estimate transmission diversity in viral epidemics." PLoS Comput Biol 9 (1) e1002876 (2013)
January 01, 2013
Pybus O.G., C. Fraser., A. Rambaut, "Evolutionary epidemiology: preparing for an age of genomic plenty" Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 368 (1614): 20120193 (2013) (full text and pdf)
January 2013
(first published online - November 19, 2012)
Price, J. R., X. Didelot, D.W. Crook, M. J. Llewelyn, and J. Paul. "Whole Genome Sequencing in the Prevention and Control of Staphylococcus Aureus Infection." J Hosp Infect 83, no. 1 (2013): 14-21 (abstract)
December 28, 2012
Roddy, P., N. Howard, M.D. Van Kerkhove, J. Lutwama, J. Wamala, Z. Yoti, R. Colebunders, P.P. Palma, E. Sterk, and B. Jeffs. "Clinical Manifestations and Case Management of Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever Caused by a Newly Identified Virus Strain, Bundibugyo, Uganda, 2007–2008." PLoS One 7, no. 12 (2012): (open access full text) (pdf)
December 26, 2012
Van Kerkhove, M. D., E. Broberg, O. G. Engelhardt, J. Wood, and A. Nicoll. "The Consortium for the Standardization of Influenza Seroepidemiology (Consise): A Global Partnership to Standardize Influenza Seroepidemiology and Develop Influenza Investigation Protocols to Inform Public Health Policy." Influenza Other Respi Viruses, (2012) (wiley online library - full text) (wiley online library - pdf)
December 21, 2012
Didelot, X., D. Eyre, M. Cule, C. Ip, A. Ansari, D. Griffiths, A. Vaughan, L. O'Connor, T. Golubchik, E. Batty, P. Piazza, D. Wilson, R. Bowden, P. Donnelly, K. Dingle, M. Wilcox, S. Walker, D. Crook, T. Peto, and R. Harding. "Microevolutionary Analysis of Clostridium Difficile Genomes to Investigate Transmission." Genome Biol 13, no. 12 (2012): R118. (abstract) (open-access pdf)
December 20, 2012
Sheppard, S. K., X. Didelot, K. A. Jolley, A. E. Darling, B. Pascoe, G. Meric, D. J. Kelly, A. Cody, F. M. Colles, N. J. Strachan, I. D. Ogden, K. Forbes, N. P. French, P. Carter, W. G. Miller, N. D. McCarthy, R. Owen, E. Litrup, M. Egholm, J. P. Affourtit, S. D. Bentley, J. Parkhill, M. C. Maiden, and D. Falush. "Progressive Genome-Wide Introgression in Agricultural Campylobacter Coli." Mol Ecol, (2012). (abstract)
December 13, 2012
Cauchemez, S., P. Horby, A. Fox, Q. Mai le, T. Thanh le, P. Q. Thai, N. M. Hoa le, N. T. Hien, and N. M. Ferguson. "Influenza Infection Rates, Measurement Errors and the Interpretation of Paired Serology." PLoS Pathog 8, no. 12 (2012): e1003061. (open access full text) (pdf)
December 07, 2012
Karolemeas, K., C. A. Donnelly, A. J. K. Conlan, A. P. Mitchell, R. S. Clifton-Hadley, P. Upton, J. L. N. Wood, and T. J. McKinley. "The Effect of Badger Culling on Breakdown Prolongation and Recurrence of Bovine Tuberculosis in Cattle Herds in Great Britain." PLoS One 7, no. 12 (2012). (open access full text) (pdf)
December 04, 2012
Okell, L. C., T. Bousema, J. T. Griffin, A. L. Ouedraogo, A. C. Ghani, and C. J. Drakeley. "Factors Determining the Occurrence of Submicroscopic Malaria Infections and Their Relevance for Control." Nat Commun 3, (2012): 1237. (open access full text) (pdf)
December 01, 2012
Ratmann, O., G. Donker, A. Meijer, C. Fraser, and K. Koelle. "Phylodynamic Inference and Model Assessment with Approximate Bayesian Computation: Influenza as a Case Study." PLoS Comput Biol 8, no. 12 (2012) (open access full text) (pdf)
December 2012
(first published online June 12, 2012)
Read, J. M., W. J. Edmunds, S. Riley, J. Lessler, and D. A. Cummings. "Close Encounters of the Infectious Kind: Methods to Measure Social Mixing Behaviour." Epidemiol Infect 140, no. 12 (2012): 2117-30. (abstract)
November 29, 2012
Dingle, K. E., X. Didelot, M. A. Ansari, D. W. Eyre, A. Vaughan, D. Griffiths, C. L. Ip, E. M. Batty, T. Golubchik, R. Bowden, K. A. Jolley, D. W. Hood, W. N. Fawley, A. S. Walker, T. E. Peto, M. H. Wilcox, and D. W. Crook. "Recombinational Switching of the Clostridium Difficile S-Layer and a Novel Glycosylation Gene Cluster Revealed by Large Scale Whole Genome Sequencing." J Infect Dis, (2012) (abstract)
November 01, 2012
Wolbers, M., I. Kleinschmidt, C. P. Simmons, and C. A. Donnelly. "Considerations in the Design of Clinical Trials to Test Novel Entomological Approaches to Dengue Control." PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6, no. 11 (2012): e1937 (open access full text) (pdf)
